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Today we look into the possible scenario where China tries to invade Australia . In this case we believe that the Americans, who have been allies of the Australians for some seventy-five years, would be obliged to intervene to help Australia defend her airspace and shipping. Several other nations in East Asia and elsewhere in the world would also be obliged by treaty and tradition to support Australia, but, since the conflict would already involve two nuclear powers—China and the United States—their participation would be carefully measured to avoid escalating the conflict.
China would have the option of sending airstrikes over Indonesian airspace to reach Australia or to fly further east and violate the airspace of Papua New Guinea and several Pacific Island nations. Indonesia would object strenuously to Chinese intrusion and, if ignored, would probably commit its air force to shooting down any Chinese warplanes involved. Further east, American and Australian aircraft would easily be able to handle any Chinese aggressors. China has a very limited in-flight refueling capacity and these attacks would be very weak.
China also has the option of not attacking Australia proper and just attacking her civilian shipping and warships, probably only in the China Seas and the western Pacific. If this occurs, the Americans would give a warning to China that its treaty obligations were being triggered and, if China did not respond, the American 7th Fleet and probably the 5th Air Force would intervene to assist any Australian ships and aircraft in danger.
China’s submarines could strike at Australian ships with some success as long as they stayed close to the Chinese mainland. Farther out in blue water, the preponderance of American naval strength would eliminate them quickly. It is also highly likely that the navies of South Korea, Japan, and Indonesia would take limited action to assist the Australians at sea.
The rest of China’s military would be of little or no use in the conflict as long as any opposing forces did not approach China’s coastline, where her formidable array of missile weapons would come into play. This is highly unlikely, however, as the risk of the war escalating to include more nations and more deadly weapons would be very great.
It is unlikely that any military strikes would be made against the Chinese mainland, as nothing could be gained to justify the risks. It is unlikely, but certainly possible, for China to manage some harm to Australia from airstrikes. Australia has no independent means of attacking China, but the economic devastation that China would inflict on itself by attacking Australia, including a more or less permanent cut-off of its primary source of iron for its domestic industries, would be far greater than any Australian air strikes could inflict.
Overall, the combat phase of the war would be over in a few days to a week. China would lose much of its best aircraft and any part of its navy that ventured out to fight away from the cover of its missile shield. The only Chinese or Australian ground forces that might be involved would be in attacks on shipping or raids on exposed military bases. The key goal of everyone involved other than China would be to limit their military actions to the minimum required to protect their allies, protect their airspace and trade, and assert their sovereignty. Their military aim would be to avoid expensive escalation of the fighting and the risk of nuclear strikes. Politically, they would be seeking to avoid permanent damage to trade and diplomatic relations.
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